Dr Reddy's retail Rx fonda sales for the week ending Sept 21 was...

Dr Reddy's retail Rx fonda sales for the week ending Sept 21 was $1.883mill.

Institutional/hospital sales for the month of August (the most recent month available) was $1.377.

This means that gross monthly retail/hospital sales are presently tracking at approximately $9mill.

Because hospital sales are still in their infancy for Dr Reddy's (cf., GSK hospital sales are presently $6.7mill/month and Apotex hospital sales are presently $13.6mill/month), I expect this gross monthly sales figure to rise significantly over the course of the current FY. More specifically, current market share in the hospital segment for Dr Reddy's is only around 6% (up sharply from the previous month). With lower API costs now locked in, I expect Dr Reddy's to push hard in this segment, eventually lifting market share to around 41% (=same as retail). This suggests that Dr Reddy's will, over time, lift monthly hospital sales from the present $1.3mill to around $9mill.

On this basis, I think that for FY14, gross US sales for hospital and retail combined will be in the region of US$15mill/month, or $180mill annually.

I’ll offer an analysis of likely EU and ROW sales at a later date.