As of June 30, 2018 Galaxy had US$84.8 million in cash, and no debt. Current market cap is AUD 1.25b and enterprise value is estimated to fall to AUD 860m or lower (after the POSCO sale completes). 2018 PE is 10.4. Analyst’s consensus target price is AU$4.04.
With the POSCO sale due to complete sometime in Q3 2018 Galaxy Resources should receive a significant re-rating given the fact the sale proceeds of US$280m (plus ~US$200m retained Mt Cattlin earnings) will be enough to allow Galaxy to self fund Sal De Vida (CapEx US$474million). Looking ahead once Sal De Vida is up and running it is projected to earn an EBITDA of US$270 million for a project life of 40 years (40 years x 25,000tpa). Finally James Bay could be brought on quite easily using existing retained earnings say by mid 2020’s as global lithium demand requires. Once all three projects are running Galaxy Resources could be looking at combined EBITDA of ~US$500m pa (100m + 280m + 120m). Applying a 10x multiple to this would suggest Galaxy is headed towards an Enterprise Value of ~US$5b by the mid 2020’s, which would be 5.8x higher than now.
GXY Price at posting:
$3.08 Sentiment: Hold Disclosure: Not Held
