latest coverage edison brokerage , page-3

Also now available on the Tangiers site in the Investor Centre > Analyst Reports area. Three things of interest:

1) Success case of approx $8.60 (approx 37 fold increase)
2) Failure case not given explicitly but makes the point that basically a one trick pony so not much value left if a duster
3) 8% or roughly 1 in 12 chance of commercial success. Starting from a 20% geological chance of success, this reduces when all the various additional risks to commercial production are included.

So it is highly likely your money will follow the drill bit down the well never to be seen again, but a small chance of doing very well.

There is something called the Expected Value method or Coin Flip approach to investment:

Neutral price = (Price on success X Chance of success) + (Price on failure X Chance of success)

So for example:

Price on success = 500c (to be conservative)
Price on failure = 4c (my guess)
Chance of success = 8%

Then:

(500c x 8%) + (4c x 8%) = (40c + 0.3c ) = 40.3 cents. This is the point where the investment is neutral in terms of the odds (ie below this is a buy, above is a sell) and on this basis suggests TPT is undervalued. Of course this is a pretty simple calculation which doesn't consider various other factors so main use is to give just a ballpark figure on what is a fair price. And of course you can debate whether a 20% gCoS is too low given the heavy oil at Cap Juby etc.

Won't be too long until oil is revealed (or not).