Hughpt, without being able to put a number on it, I would certainly expect MEY is in contact with other U3O8 explorers/project developers while also looking to identify attractive deposits to pursue on an independent basis at current market-bottom prices. As such, I think relevant newsflow will follow in the months ahead. One thing that should be borne in mind, however: while fees generated from test work potentially reduce the reliance on dilutive capital calls to fund MEY in these barren years (a big plus, and something which differentiates it from other juniors!), the bigger picture for MEY is not solely to be a consulting firm, but rather prove the concept and move towards big money OPEX/CAPEX savings on a major project, with the benefit of a decent licensing arrangement. This is the big prize, potentially worth multiples of the current market cap over time. With this in mind, there is an optimal level of projects to work with before they become an unnecessary distraction for a small focused team. But ok...
Judging from the quarterly reports, you can get the sense that DYL is optimistic about what U-pgradeTM can bring to the table. From the latest:
* "Interim results received to date focused on the first steps in the process have been in line with and in some cases even exceeded expectations. The testwork program, scheduled to be completed around mid-year..." We are not that far from mid year now.
This raises another important point, but one for which the market cap of Marenica currently does not appear to benefit. Until now, research firms have tended to rank and apply valuations to U3O8 explorers
on the basis of some combination of the size of their deposits and the head-grade. All things equal, higher head-grade helps to make a project economic at lower prices, so this makes sense. For example, we know that MEY's head-grade is 3-4x lower than that of the DYL projects for which MEY is doing test work, and, indeed, it's market cap is still around 3x less than DYL's. But with U-pgradeTM, the methodology and thinking applied to valuations has to change to one reflecting size of deposit and pricing trigger point for project development: Marenica has the ability to materially lower the trigger point for project development of rival explorer calcrete deposits; other firms do not. Let's look at this closer. In previous reports, DYL alludes to an $80/lb pricing environment which Namibian-focused juniors would need in order to move their projects ahead. I am confident that with the application of U-pgradeTM, Marenica's own Namibian deposit (despite lower head-grades) would be economic at that price, and possibly lower, yet MEY appears to receive little benefit of this in its share price (From a previous presentation or report, I think MEY mentioned that they received an independent valuation of the Namibian project of around $25MM in 2014/15!). If Marenica has 50MM pounds of U3O8 which could be economic at a trigger-price lower than the trigger point of any of DYL's projects without U-pgradeTM, you would think that the relative value argument would point towards a higher market capitalisation of MEY vis-a-vis DYL than is currently evident. I think, therefore, that MEY has additional room to appreciate vs peers in the months ahead.
Think of all those stranded millions of pounds of U3O8 lying in dormant projects which could be released at trigger points of $15-30/lb cheaper than current expectations IF/ONCE U-pgradeTM is finally proved to work at a pilot plant level. It would represent a paradigm shift in the industry. MEY.AX has to be one of the cheapest out of the money options on the ASX.
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Hughpt, without being able to put a number on it, I would...
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