latest info affecting qbe

Ok, as you all know i am a huge fan of QBE long term. But the latest events this week tells me there may be a short term correction (next 3-6 months) because:

1. AUD/USD at $1.09, this eats into EPS. QBE is mitigating the damage by buying US assets like balboa with the buying power of the aussie but ultimately, even though gross premium and insurance profit is reported in USD which will rise with the appreciation of the AUD, on the conversion to AUD, it will be negative factor.( Latest QBE FIGURES WERE BASED ON AN AVERAGE AUD/USD OF 0.98 SO IF WE STAY AT $1.09 LONG TERM, THIS WILL EQUATE TO A 11% DECLINE IN EPS FROM LATEST PROJECTIONS)

2. US fed confirming a low interest rate environment for at least 2011. No earnings upside for QBE.

3. UK BOE looking like rates will be stagnant this year as well.

4. US tornados/storms doing major damage to property/motor

5. A higher risk this year of an active hurricane season in the US(june to nov).

6. Perceived risk of major earthquake on west coast of US due to being on the same fault line of christchurch & japan

7. 50% of catastrophie allowance has already been spent with 8 months to go.

8. ASX 200 is due for a general correction of 200 to 300 points

9. QBE mngt tricky at AGM when they said insurance profit will be up by 30% rather than 20-25%. All they did was change the currency conversion average from AUD/USD 92 cents to 98 cents which made the headline figures higher

10. New global capital rules will increase M&A amongst insurance companies to achieve growth so it will be harder for QBE to make earnings accretive acquisitions with more competition in the marketplace.

I sold my entire position yesterday ($19.37 average) with the view to sit it out for a few months and wait for a buying opportunity later this year.It was a very hard decision because i think this is a truly great Australian company with great management but the world is against it at the moment.

Good luck holders