I've had my head in many, many charts the past couple of months studying what could be quite a major stock market (and everything else) downturn. Different sectors and markets sell off at different times. Its seems the Russel 2000 and Junk bonds lead the way in signalling the top was in. They started moving sideways in early 2021 while the NASDAQ and S&P500 kept powering on. Both exhibit classic Wycoff distribution tops. Next the tech wreck and the crypto winter (classic bull-trap on the bitcoin chart). Then the S&P500 enters bear market correction. Interestingly the NASDAQ biotech index has followed the same timing as the S&P500 but the fall is more severe (as to be expected due to the speculative nature of the sector).
The chart is messy with so many lines, but it is the timing of when each sector exhibited exhaustion of buying that tells the story:
Yellow: Junk Bond ETF, JNK
Orange: Russel 2000 Index, RUT
Purple: Bitcoin/USD, BTC
Teal, NASDAQ Benchmark Biotech Index, IXIC
Blue: S&P500, SPX
I made a decision to go to mainly cash a couple of months ago, but I've kept my KZA (and made a couple of small trades in it this year too). I did end up selling a few mineral explorer speckie stocks though to get to my desired cash weighting. One of those stocks, which I sold at a loss, hit mineralisation with the diamond drill and five bagged last week. Such is life. A market downturn won't impact the value of paxsalisib if it becomes successfully registered.
I'm holding firm on KZA.
