Pretty much what I have been saying, compared to 2019 the gap looks too big for LNP to bridge
The ALP has a large lead of 9% points over the L-NP on a two-party preferred basis when the preferences of minor party voters are allocated based on preference flows at the 2019 Federal Election according to the latest Roy Morgan Poll conducted from May 2-8, 2022.
When looking at primary support, and including those who can’t say who they support, the ALP was at 33%, support for the L-NP was at 31.5% and there were 35.5% of people who either supported a minor party, independent or who couldn’t (or wouldn’t) say who they supported – a higher proportion of electors than supported either of the major parties.
Allocating preferences based on how people voted at the 2019 Federal Election shows the ALP on 54.5% (up 0.5% points from a week ago) compared to the L-NP on 45.5% (down 0.5% points).
Roy Morgan has previously published preference flows based on how people say they will direct their preferences. Under this method the ALP leads the L-NP by a larger margin of 12% points: ALP 56% (up 0.5% points in a week) compared to the L-NP on 44% (down 0.5% points).
We believe that as the election draws closer and early voting has now begun – starting yesterday – it is more accurate to estimate a two-party preferred result based on the voting pattern of the most recent Federal Election in 2019.
To see how the two methods produce slightly different two-party preferred results visit the Roy Morgan two-party preferred voting intention trends page here: https://www.roymorgan.com/morganpoll/federal-voting/2pp-voting-intention-recent-2016-2022.
The weekly Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating fell a further 3pts to 81 this week after the RBA raised interest rates by 0.25% points to 0.35% - the first increase in official interest rates for over a decade since November 2010.
There are now far more Australians, 51% (up 1% point), who say the country is ‘heading in the wrong direction’ compared to just under a third of Australians, 32% (down 2% points), who say the country is ‘heading in the right direction’.
If a Federal Election had been held last weekend the ALP would have won a clear majority.
Michele Levine, CEO Roy Morgan, says there are an unprecedented proportion of Australians – over a third of electors (35.5%) – who say they will vote for either one of the minor parties, an independent, or can’t say who they would support only two weeks before the election:
Today’s Roy Morgan Poll on Federal voting intention shows the ALP holds an election winning lead with 54.5% support ahead of the L-NP on 45.5% on a two-party preferred basis when preferences are allocated based on preference flows at the 2019 Federal Election.
“However the two-party preferred result doesn’t tell the full story. When electors are asked who they support, over a third, 35.5%, say they support either other parties, independents or can’t say who they would support – a higher level of support than for either the ALP (33%) or L-NP (31.5%).
“This large cohort of voters not voting for their major parties makes predicting the final two-party preferred result particularly difficult and increases the chances of a large number of cross-benchers being elected at next week’s Federal Election.
“On current trends, the ALP will win a majority of seats at the Federal Election and any cross-benchers elected will not hold the balance of power. However, a late swing to L-NP over the last two weeks of the election campaign could still produce a hung Parliament with the ALP favoured to be able to form Government with cross-bench support.
“Although many pundits refer to the ‘unexpected’ victory of the Scott Morrison-led L-NP at the 2019 Federal Election, in reality, the polls – including the Roy Morgan Poll – were a lot closer three years ago. In early May 2019 the Roy Morgan Poll consistently showed the ALP had a narrow two-party preferred lead of ALP 51% cf. L-NP 49% - within the margin of error.
“The L-NP made a late surge three years ago and increased their two-party preferred vote by 2.5% points over the last two weeks of the campaign. A similar swing for the L-NP now would not be enough for the L-NP to retain Government at next week’s Federal Election.
“One of the most significant differences between now and three years ago is that Prime Minister Scott Morrison is now well-known around Australia – which was not the case in 2019 – and the news is not good for Morrison.
“A special Roy Morgan Poll into ‘trust’ and ‘distrust’ of Australia’s politicians showed that Prime Minister Scott Morrison has the highest ‘Net Distrust’ score of any current Australian politician – just ahead of Defence Minister Peter Dutton and Nationals Leader Barnaby Joyce.
“The lack of trust in Morrison relates to many issues including the government’s failure to legislate for a Federal corruption commission during this term of Parliament, issues surrounding the acquisition and roll-out of COVID-19 vaccines during 2021, and questions about Morrison’s trustworthiness raised by former colleagues such as former Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull.
“Early voting has now commenced across Australia and with just over a week to go until next week’s Federal Election the ALP is firmly favoured to win Government at next week’s election – and likely with a majority of seats.”
https://www.roymorgan.com/findings/8967-roy-morgan-poll-on-federal-voting-intention-may-2022-202205091128
Electors were asked: “If an election for the House of Representatives were held today – which party will receive your first preference? and
“Generally speaking, do you feel that things in Australia are heading in the right direction or would you say things are seriously heading in the wrong direction?”
