No I haven't been able to re-weight. There simply isn't the liquidity in MLX relative to BDR and NST to achieve this from my perspective. An entry / exit in MLX needs to be slow and steady.
I agree that there is execution risk with the development of the CMGP and, I believe, 'Undaunted' has alluded to this issue with the question "if other's have failed why will MLX succeed?".
Without having the complete answer I would suggest it probably lies in a combination of:
(1) Price paid for projects by MLX is far less than sunk costs / assets valued
(2) By combining multiple projects into one operation scale and cherry picking will ensure better LOM and AISC outcomes
(3) AUD POG is much higher and within $150 of all time highs and trending
(4) Cost pressures have come out of the mining sector
(5) Management are experienced operators (not starry eyed geo's)
(6) Scale to negotiate preferential contract terms when combined with HGO and SKO (as per recent NST comments)
(7) Funding development from cash not debt
(8) Existing cash flow positive operations (Tassie, HGO and SKO) to provide additional cash flows if CMGP takes longer / costs more to ramp up
Importantly, my spreadsheet shows MLX as a highly undervalued company EXCLUDING any production value or cash flows from the CMGP - valuation only shows up in LOM, EV / Resource, and EV / Reserve figures.
Thus, IMO, my spreadsheet doesn't provide the full extent of MLX's potential for investors in the coming few years.
Cheers
John
MLX Price at posting:
$1.19 Sentiment: None Disclosure: Held
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