I think the issue lies within who labor voters will direct their vote to.
Many dissatisfied labor voters direct their vote to the Greens which in turn returns to labor.
As the poll is a two party preferred the vote is still a labor vote, hence labor maintain a lead in the polls.
This will transend on voting day also if people vote Green as a protest against Rudd. They may as well continue to vote Labor and save the scrutineers time in having to allocate 2nd preference.
