Cheers investor - that is a good point about the SPI. this morning the opening action was nowhere near as pronouced - hit $6 indicative pre-open and dived by 1 measly cent. So you were spot on!
I'm going short - but mainly for the overhang reasons - in fact the whole "ag" sector is in overhang (ELD, AWB, GNS, WFL, FEA . . . probably some more too). Probably will go long at some stage too!
I've found some interesting factors that effect the operating margins of (old) GNC. The main factor is obviously the grain receivals (which is effected by weather) - this seemed to explain (statistically speaking) about 80% of the op margin movement.
But surprisingly also the exchange rate "explains" about 50% of the op margin movement - with the TWI being slightly more reliable the the US dollar movement.
Hope that is a help to somebody out there!
In modelling GNC - hardest thing is modelling for weather - obvious I guess! Any tips on this would be appreciated! Otherwise you just go with averages I guess. I have seen that timing of rain is important, and not just quantity of rain.
GNC Price at posting:
$5.76 Sentiment: ST Sell Disclosure: Held
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