latest ratings

I was looking to get in NUF again but had to wait for end of month updates, and let me tell you, it's not looking good.

I will leave this one on my radar but will enter only if there is a significant announcement or if the SP falls under $8.00.


Macquarie 30/03/2010 5 Underperform $8.96 5.5%

Target $8.96 (was $9.20). Interim earnings were in line with recent guidance and the broker notes there was limited fresh news attached to the result.

While full year earnings guidance was retained the broker suggests achieving this remains uncertain as seasonal conditions will be important and the Australian market is still competitive.

Post the result the broker has trimmed its forecasts and price target and its Underperform rating is retained.

Target price is $8.96 Current Price is $8.68 Difference: $0.28
If NUF meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
BA-Merrill Lynch 30/03/2010 5 Underperform, High Risk $8.00 - 5.8%

The 1H120 result was weak as anticipated, with lower glyphosate prices hitting US margins.

The capital raising is expected to last until May and is predicted to set a discount to the current share price.

Target falls to $8.00 from $8.50.


Target price is $8.00 Current Price is $8.68 Difference: minus $0.68 (current price is over target).
If NUF meets the BA-Merrill Lynch target it will return approximately minus 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
JP Morgan 30/03/2010 5 Downgrade to Underweight from Neutral $7.69 - 9.4%

Target $7.69 (was $9.47). Interim earnings for the company were broadly in line with previous guidance, the broker noting divisional performance was mixed with Europe better and Australasia worse than expected.

Full year earnings guidance has been maintained but the broker notes there are caveats such as weather conditions and an improvement in glyphosate margins, leading the broker to caution there is risk to this guidance.

Post the result the broker sees the stock as relatively expensive when compared to peers and so it downgrades to an Underweight rating.

Target price is $7.69 Current Price is $8.68 Difference: minus $0.99 (current price is over target).
If NUF meets the JP Morgan target it will return approximately minus 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
UBS 30/03/2010 3 Restricted - -

The result was in line with guidance but the composition was weaker than UBS had been expecting.

While the broker expects a large improvement from North America, guidance for 2H10 is seen as a stretch.

Current Price is $8.68. Target price not assessed.
Credit Suisse 30/03/2010 5 Underperform $7.70 - 9.3%

Nufarm's release of its previously guided loss showed a picture that was "not pretty" as far as the broker is concerned, with operating and cashflow losses and a withdrawal of the interim dividend.

It should be a promising time ahead for Nufarm given the weather of late, but the glyphosate market is taking a while to normalise and Nufarm's acquisitions look curious given the dividend cut. Nor was there any word on a capital raising. The broker has cut its earnings forecasts and reduced its target from $8.05 to $7.70.

Target price is $7.70 Current Price is $8.68 Difference: minus $0.98 (current price is over target).
If NUF meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately minus 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Deutsche Bank 30/03/2010 5 Downgrade to Sell from Hold $7.50 - 11.7%

Nufarm's first half result was broadly in line with guidance but quality was low, the broker notes, given operating earnings of $19m were well below the broker's $44m forecast.

For Nufarm to achieve full-year guidance it would have to be a record second half, the broker notes, and the glyphosate market and the A$ are not running in the company's favour. And the CEO's planned stake reduction will overhang the stock.

The broker has reduced forecast earnings by 6-8% in FY10-12 and reduced its target from $8.00 to $7.50. Downgrade.

Target price is $7.50 Current Price is $8.68 Difference: minus $1.18 (current price is over target).
If NUF meets the Deutsche Bank target it will return approximately minus 14% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).