HRR 0.00% 4.5¢ heron resources limited

latest research - spells it all out.

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    The following latest Independant Mining Research on Heron Resources clearly shows the current state of affairs at Heron.
    If one takes the time to read then one can draw his/her conclusions at Heron's true value.

    Author: John Macdonald.
    As found on Heron's newly updated website.

    Summary:
    Among nickel laterites the Kalgoorlie Nickel Project offers a
    rare combination of size, amenability to pressure acid
    leaching, political security, and environmental stability.
    A recent technical discovery relating to the KNP’s main ore
    type could mean that high average grade can be added to
    the list of the KNP’s attributes; effectively fulfilling the major
    mining company wish list for new nickel projects.
    Inco has committed over $US17 million to the KNP on the
    strength of Heron’s results to date.
    Few if any other nickel projects around the world appear
    capable of diverting capital from the KNP.
    To earn an interest, Inco must free carry Heron’s 40% of the
    KNP through to capital payback, except for a token expense at
    project finance. Heron bears almost none of the project risk and
    will share in 40% of the upside.
    BHP Billiton bought 11% of Heron’s shares a week after the
    KNP JV was announced, further endorsing the KNP’s merits.
    The conflicting goals of Inco and BHPB could turn in Heron
    shareholders’ favour.
    At minimum return rates and a 60% probability of successful
    development, Heron’s stake in the KNP can be valued at 80
    cents per share. Upward revisions will be required as Inco achieves each JV milestone.
    Company Background
    Heron Resources Limited (Heron) began acquiring tenements over nickel laterite deposits in the
    Kalgoorlie region in 1997. The subsequent operational woes of Murrin Murrin, Cawse and Bulong
    effectively discouraged competing prospectors and Heron opportunistically acquired most of the
    nickel laterite prospects in the arc between the three operations, including the Bulong mineral rights
    in April 2004. Heron pegged nearly 5,000 square kilometres of tenure covering the ultramafic
    sequences north and east of Kalgoorlie that now comprise the Kalgoorlie Nickel Project (KNP). In
    September 2004 Heron estimated aggregate nickel resources, in four main project areas, of 903
    million tonnes at 0.74% nickel and 0.05% cobalt.
    At the end of March 2005, Heron announced that Inco Limited (Inco) had agreed to earn up to 60% of
    the KNP. A week later, in a separate move, BHP Billiton Limited (BHPB) bought 11.2% of Heron on
    market. Inco responded within seven days by subscribing to a placement in Heron, paying $A12.4
    million for a 10.5% stake and diluting BHPB back to a 10.1% interest in the process. Heron and Inco
    signed the KNP joint venture agreement in July 2005, officially launching one of the most ambitious mineral development programs underway in Australia.

    Nickel from laterites – The KNP in context.
    Despite the generally painful financial experience associated with nickel laterite projects worldwide in
    the past, all of the major nickel producers are persisting with efforts to convert more laterite resources
    into nickel mines. The common threads running through each producer’s strategy are the underlying
    convictions that:
    a) Growth in sulphide ore sources will be insufficient to meet nickel demand,
    b) Refinement in the technology of extraction will force down the basic cost of extracting nickel
    from laterite ore, and
    c) The process technology most likely to be refined to a competitive level is Pressure Acid
    Leach (PAL), a hydrometallurgical process that enables high metal recovery rates and
    relatively efficient energy use.
    Although there has been broad agreement on the above, the companies diverged when it came to
    how and where to tackle the nickel laterites. Each of Inco, BHPB, Falconbridge and Rio Tinto have
    assessed every known nickel laterite on the planet and proceeded cautiously with only a few, without
    at all collectively narrowing down the style of laterite that can be developed with a high rate of return,
    and not too much risk. Against this background, the convergence of the two major producers on the
    KNP speaks volumes about what has been learned about nickel laterites from experience in the past
    decade.
    Firstly it has become apparent that there are very few undeveloped nickel laterites in politically and
    environmentally stable locations that can meet the technical requirements for development. Only two
    tropical nickel laterite projects qualify as low cost producers today (Sorowako in Indonesia and Cerro
    Matoso in Colombia), on account of long and costly project gestation periods, high grades, attendant
    low energy costs, and political continuity. Even with the benefit of technical advances through
    experience, finding a virtuous set of circumstances elsewhere is increasingly difficult.
    A second discovery influencing future investment plans for new nickel supplies is a purely technical
    one that has led Inco and BHP to Heron and the KNP. The unexpected success of certain screening
    practices could convert the KNP’s massive low grade laterites into high grade autoclave feed. If
    successful the KNP could prove to be a nickel producer’s holy grail; a low cost, long life, PAL project
    in a politically and environmentally stable location.
    KNP and the screening breakthrough.
    Over the last few years, work at Cawse (OMG) and Ravensthorpe (BHPB) has discovered that oxidesilica
    ores grading sub 1% nickel can be routinely and practically upgraded to +1.5% nickel through a
    physical process alone. The project set to benefit most from this finding is the KNP, which contains
    the largest known resource of oxide-silica type nickel laterite. Heron and Inco have set out to
    replicate the ore upgrade effects with KNP ore, and design a mining and treatment operation to take
    advantage of the findings.
    Most of the known resources of oxide-silica nickel laterites in Australia are derived from a unit within the Walter
    Williams Formation, a vertically dipping ultramafic lava flow that extends from west of Kalgoorlie to Ghost
    Rocks, north of Menzies. A portion of the formation called olivine adcumulate is comprised of a single mineral,
    which is low in aluminium and weathers to a consistent silica-goethite-kaolinite profile enriched in nickel and
    cobalt. The Walter Williams Formation is unique in terms of the extent of deeply weathered olivine
    adcumulates. The nearest known analog is the Bandalup Ultramafics at Ravensthorpe, which extends over 30
    kilometres of strike compared to the Walter Williams Formation strike length of over 170 kilometres.
    Heron dominates ownership of the Walter Williams Formation adcumulates, with about 125
    kilometres or 75% of the known prospective strike. Most of the remainder forms the basis for the
    OMG Group’s Cawse operation. Although Cawse is a pilot scale project producing about 8,000
    annual tonnes of nickel in intermediate form, Heron’s confidence in proceeding with the Kalgoorlie
    Nickel Project is in large part based on the performance of the Cawse process train, in particular Cawse's success with upgrading siliceous ores by screening.

    Cawse was commissioned in 1998 with a resource of 275 million tonnes at 0.7% nickel and 0.04% cobalt, of
    which 80% comprised laterites over Walter Williams Formation intended for upgrade by screening prior to
    treatment in an autoclave. Cawse’s screening practices have evolved with experience and technical
    development. Initially higher grade (1%+ Ni) siliceous ore was mined preferentially and screened through a
    relatively coarse mesh (212 micron), achieving an average upgrade in the order of 40% and a leach feed grade
    of about 1.7%. Improved upgrade rates have since been achieved at lower ore grades and finer mesh sizes, so
    that on average a 0.8% mined grade is screened through a sub 100 micron mesh to deliver material grading
    1.6% to the autoclave. BHP Billiton has drawn heavily on the Cawse experience in designing the Ravensthorpe
    screening circuit, adding an attritioning unit to remove more goethite from the silica surfaces and improve nickel
    recovery. In the first six years of operation Ravensthorpe plans to mine siliceous laterite grading 0.89% and
    upgrade it to a leach feed grade of 1.87%. At each of Cawse and Ravensthorpe predictive models have been
    developed to guide mine planning in achieving a consistent leach feed grade.
    Heron’s testing of KNP laterites has so far been consistent with the Cawse and Ravensthorpe findings. As
    expected due to the geological closeness to Cawse, the same broad mineralisation types with analogous
    screen upgrade responses have been identified. In accordance with early Cawse practice Heron has tested
    over 5,500 KNP drill samples by bottle roll (to emulate the washing process) followed by screening through a
    500 micron mesh. The average upgrade of the screened siliceous samples has been 54%. The more recent
    success of both Cawse and Ravensthorpe with finer mesh sizes and lower grade material encouraged Heron
    to test 180 micron screens across a range of cutoff grades in August 2004. The results confirmed the trend of
    improving upgrades of siliceous mineralisation with lower grades and finer mesh sizes; a finding which has
    added impetus to the KNP. The possibility that a lower cutoff grade (down to 0.5% Ni) can be applied to the
    KNP resources, while still delivering a leach feed grade of up to 1.5% Ni, has the potential to greatly improve
    the mining continuity of the deposits and thus enhance the conversion of resources to reserves.
    Further tests of KNP resource screen upgrading are planned. Larger sample sizes are required to test 75
    micron mesh screening because of the reduced screened product.
    The determination of the screening upgrade behaviour to be expected from KNP resources is an important first
    step to establishing the viability of the project. One of the lessons of the first generation of Australian PAL
    developments is that a leach feed grade of at least 1.3% nickel is required to cover the capital and running
    costs of the leaching circuit, considering long run nickel prices of $US3.50/lb. The costs of the mechanical
    mining and screening processes are insignificant relative to the expense of running and maintaining a set of
    autoclaves and the associated pipe work under high temperature, high pressure, acidic conditions. As long as
    the tonnages are available, any means of increasing the leach feed grade is likely to improve project
    economics, regardless of the mass of nickel lost from the starting resource during mining and screening.
    The Kalgoorlie Nickel Project JV
    In July 2005 Inco signed a joint venture agreement with Heron for the purpose of developing the
    KNP. To earn a 60% JV interest, Inco must fund all evaluation costs up to a decision to mine (Inco
    has estimated the evaluation process will cost at least $US68 million). Inco must also lend Heron all
    but 4.5% of Heron’s share of project equity finance required after the decision to mine. Inco will be
    entitled to purchase Heron’s 40% share of KNP output on commercial terms. The agreement
    received regulatory and Heron shareholder approvals in October 2005.
    The terms under which Inco must carry the KNP through a decision to mine and project finance in order to
    earn an interest, are included as provisions in the joint venture agreement. The first of four steps on the
    way to completing a feasibility study is for Inco to check Heron’s data and assumptions, upon which Heron
    has estimated that the KNP can produce at least 120 million tonnes of material at a leach feed grade of
    1.5% nickel or better. The estimated cost to Inco of the program is US$2.4 million.
    As in any earn-in joint venture agreement, Inco is spending the money and can withdraw from the joint
    venture before a decision to mine is made. Heron will retain 100% of the KNP in that event. Heron can
    also terminate the agreement if Inco fails to meet certain deadlines specified in the agreement. Inco’s
    current checking program must be finished by July 2006, initial metallurgical testing and flow sheet
    selection must be completed by September 2007, all pre-feasibility study work including infill and
    extension drilling must be completed by January 2009, the feasibility study must be finished by July 2011,
    and if a positive BFS results a decision to mine must be made before July 2013 (otherwise Heron has certain rights to bank the project and so increase equity and secure off take rights)
    In the context of nickel laterite projects six years is a reasonably tight assessment schedule.
    Breakneck BFS speeds set by earlier projects such as Murrin Murrin resulted in high prices paid in
    terms of retro-engineering. The large size of the KNP resource base dictates an extensive drilling
    requirement (step three) which under the current timetable must be completed between September
    2007 and January 2009. An early start to step three drilling would ease pressure on the timetable.
    The JV agreement gives Inco flexibility on the project’s timing, which is likely to be dictated by
    progressive results from the KNP, Inco’s reading of nickel supply and demand, and Inco’s refinery
    requirements. Inco plans to commission Voisey’s Bay in 2006, Goro in 2007, and expand PT Inco by
    2009, spending about $US3 billion in the process. The KNP is Inco’s next most likely green fields
    investment, and could be in production as early as 2013 if Inco believed it was the best available
    option for meeting demand growth. Both Goro and Voisey’s Bay will have hydrometallurgical refining
    facilities to which the KNP could be designed to supply intermediate nickel product.
    Inco established a team in Kalgoorlie in April 2005. The immediate tasks undertaken include relogging
    previous drilling and auditing the effects of the RC drilling process on the samples. Diamond
    drilling, twinned against Heron’s previous holes, commenced in October 2005 as part of the program.
    Heron expects (step two) metallurgical diamond drilling (delivering undisturbed samples to the laboratory)
    to commence immediately upon completion of the current confirmatory (step 1) diamond drilling
    For Heron, a free carried 40% of the KNP, all the way to payback, with only a token capital
    requirement at financing stage, is a dream agreement that could only reflect Inco’s enthusiasm for
    the project. Heron bears virtually none of the project risk and will enjoy 40% of the upside. BHPB
    appears to have been impressed, perhaps by both the project and the JV terms, when choosing to
    take an equity stake in Heron.
    BHPB’s interest in Heron
    Although BHPB’s intentions with regard to its Heron stake are unclear, the effect is to introduce some
    competitive tension into the future ownership of both Heron and the KNP. BHPB could increase its
    stake in Heron with a view to eventually becoming Inco’s 40% partner. Heron’s feasibility study free
    carry and the terms of the JV are certainly attractive enough for BHPB to entertain the possibility.
    Moreover BHPB will have plenty to offer the JV through its experience at Ravensthorpe. The only
    obvious sticking point would be Inco’s rights to the offtake.
    BHPB may also be prepared to act as fall back partner, ready to step in should Inco not proceed to
    development under the agreement.
    From Inco’s perspective the presence of BHPB on Heron’s register will be disconcerting, especially in
    the light of BHPB’s takeover of WMC Resources Limited. The prospect of a major competitor seeking
    to take over a JV partner is not generally accepted in markets such as nickel, where technical
    advantages are closely guarded. Since Inco carries all of the JV responsibilities through to BFS, the
    technical exchange could be a one way street. Inco’s decision to take a placement in Heron is
    ostensibly a warning to BHPB that Inco will not tolerate BHPB hitching a ride on the JV through any
    sort of board control of Heron.
    Valuation issues
    Inco has committed at least A$17.4 million to Heron via the placement and KNP JV expenditure to
    date, while BHP has spent A$5.6 million on shares in Heron. At one end of the scale of significance
    the amount of money involved will not blow out the respective annual corporate development or
    exploration budgets. At the other, Heron owns a large nickel project that two major nickel producers
    are prepared to enter into open competition for. The odds of its eventual development have
    shortened as a consequence.
    For the KNP to eventually be developed with a real terms capital cost of over A$1.4 billion, an NPV of
    at least A$580 million would need to be demonstrated, assuming a minimum 15% hurdle rate of
    return on capital. If development were assured, Heron’s share of the NPV, which is greater than 40%
    by virtue of the free carry, would be at least A$240 million. At a 60% probability of successful
    development an initial valuation of 80 cents per share (fully diluted) is reasonable. The probability will climb as Inco achieves each JV milestone.

    The relatively open timeline within which Inco can develop the KNP reflects Inco’s general attitude
    which dictates that green field PAL nickel projects take 8-10 years from exploration to
    commissioning. Inco may be over cautious on the timing in view of its experience in New Caledonia
    and elsewhere. Certainly, if the KNP stacks up Inco could conceivably shorten the timetable, taking
    into account improved contractor response times and its own greater confidence in HPAL processes.
    At any rate Heron’s equity participation terms more than make up for any caution that Inco might
    bring to the project. Also the time to cash flow returns from the project is balanced by the scale of the
    investment, which withstands even heavy discount rates.
    The real value of the KNP lies in its capacity to attract capital away from competing projects.
    Project comparison
    The pace of nickel demand growth suggests 40-50,000 tonnes of new nickel capacity, or the
    equivalent of one green fields project, will need to be added each year. Assuming sulphide source
    production can be maintained in the face of resource depletion pressures, all of the growth will need
    to come from laterite sources.
    The two main competing nickel laterite project ‘types’ are smelting and PAL. In general the deposit
    mineralogy determines which of the two apply to any particular project. Laterite smelting projects are
    relatively energy intensive, requiring a combination of high grade ore and cheap power to be
    competitive. Dwindling high grade ore sources and increasing power costs are reducing the viability
    of new laterite smelting projects relative to PAL nickel projects.
    Because of the constraints facing future nickel production worldwide, a comparison of the KNP with
    other PAL projects can give a sense of its likelihood of development. If the KNP can be ranked among the best
    of the PAL projects then it can be reasonably assured of development.


    Of the active PAL projects identified, only Goro, Vermelho, KNP and probably Gag Island appear
    capable of delivering a 1.5% average nickel leach feed grade to the autoclaves at a +40,000 tpa
    scale, over a +20 year project life.
    All projects, other than those in Australia, occur in tropical climates with attendant environmental
    issues of tailings and effluent disposal. Projects in Madagascar, New Caledonia, Cuba, PNG, and
    Indonesia also contend with some potential for social or political unrest.
    The KNP is at an earlier stage of assessment than most, as the potential for upgrading of the KNP
    laterites has only recently been quantified.
    Examination of the list of active HPAL projects tends to support Inco’s statement after entering into
    the KNP JV, that “finding a project of this scale with established infrastructure in a politically attractive
    location is extremely difficult”. Realisation of Heron and Inco’s initial expectations of the KNP would
    elevate the KNP to the top tier of green field nickel projects in the world.

    Heron’s other assets

    Since the mid 1990s Heron has been one of the most active tenement acquirers in Western
    Australia, concentrating on but not restricted to the greenstone belts of the Eastern Goldfields.
    Except for some tenements over Walter Williams Formation in the KNP, Heron has compiled its
    tenement portfolio entirely through application for vacant leases and by land swap arrangements with
    other tenement holders. The minerals industry downturn from 1999 to 2002 enabled Heron to secure
    regional scale holdings at negligible cost. A significant number of the tenements are held under
    application, awaiting grant following the native title process.
    Although the final boundaries of the KNP will depend on Inco’s nomination by March 2006 of
    tenements likely to contribute to the KNP, the designated area of interest from which Inco must make
    its choice contains less than 20% of Heron’s total holdings by area. The total portfolio, including the
    area to be allotted to the KNP, covers nickel sulphide, gold, iron ore, copper and uranium prospects.
    In addition to the KNP joint venture, Inco and Heron have agreed to form a separate joint venture to
    explore for nickel sulphides on Heron’s tenements.

    At Kalpini, laterite and sulphide nickel mineralisation occur in close association. Heron’s Kalpini
    tenements surround the Emu Lake and Acra prospects of Jubilee Mines led joint ventures, where
    basal contact massive sulphides have been discovered. Heron found and sampled a gossan
    coincident with a magnetic anomaly north of Jubilee’s Emu Lake prospect in 2004. Elevated nickel,
    copper and PGE values confirmed the prospectivity for nickel sulphides. Plans for EM surveys over
    up to 12 nickel sulphide targets in the broader Kalpini district were put on hold pending negotiations
    with Inco in 2005.
    A second region of interest for nickel sulphides exploration is Heron’s Transfind-Cowarna Downs
    block, south of the Silver Swan and Acra nickel sulphide belts.
    The terms and scope of the nickel sulphide exploration joint venture between Inco and Heron are yet
    to be finalised. The announced intent is for Inco to fund all exploration with minimum Department of
    Industry and Resources expenditure commitments, and that any development will be owned 60% by
    Inco and 40% by Heron upon Decision-to-Mine.
    In October 2005 Heron announced the discovery of gossanous material within ultramafic sequences
    at Ghost Rocks. Samples taken from malachite rich stringers over a 400 metre strike length assayed
    up to 6.5% copper with elevated nickel, platinum and palladium. A ground electromagnetic survey of the Ghost Rocks sulphide prospect will be completed in 2006
    in prepearation for drilling.

    To allow a nickel laterite focus and help finance exploration and development of project areas outside
    of the core nickel laterite holdings, as they take shape and progress through to grant, Heron has
    floated separate companies and distributed the vendor shares to Heron shareholders. Gold and
    nickel sulphide prospects were transferred to Avoca Resources (ASX code AVO) and Pioneer Nickel
    (PIO) in 2002 and 2003. In each case the shares that Heron received as consideration for the
    prospects were distributed pro rata to Heron shareholders. The strategy has delivered effective
    dividends to Heron shareholders of $16 million (at February 2006 share prices), as well as provided
    for external project finance and management. Heron also received 6 million options in Avoca which it
    sold, and still holds 6 million options in Pioneer.
    In February 2006 Heron had three subsidiaries at various stages of preparedness for initial public
    offers. Ochre Resources, comprising a portfolio of iron ore projects, is the most advanced of the
    three. Regent Resources was established to hold Heron’s gold and copper assets in the Eastern
    Goldfields, post the KNP and nickel sulphide joint venture carve out. Balladonia Energy has pegged
    oil shale, mineral sands and uranium prospects.
    Heron employs seven experienced geoscientists based in Kalgoorlie. Four work on new project
    generation and three are seconded to Inco for the KNP laterite work. After ten continuous years of
    operating out of Kalgoorlie, Heron’s knowledge of the Eastern Goldfields delivers a competitive edge in tenement acquisition and exploration.
 
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