A HUGE swing against Labor by Queensland voters has put Tony Abbott on the brink of a stunning win at a cliffhanger federal election on Saturday.
The most comprehensive poll conducted during the election campaign so far shows Julia Gillard's team at risk of losing up to 10 seats in the Sunshine State, as they reap the backlash from Kevin Rudd's dumping.
The scenario is reminiscent of the 1996 federal election, when then premier Wayne Goss famously described Queensland voters as sitting on their verandas with baseball bats waiting for Paul Keating. Labor went on to lose 11 seats in 1996, retaining only the Brisbane seats of Brisbane and Rankin.
Last week's poll of national marginal seats was conducted exclusively for The Sunday Mail by Galaxy Research. A similar poll in 2007 accurately predicted Kevin Rudd's landslide victory.
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With the ALP also in jeopardy of losing seven seats in NSW and two in Western Australia, their best hope of retaining power appears to rest on picking up two seats in Ms Gillard's home state of Victoria.
The Galaxy poll of 4000 voters in four marginal electorates in each of five states reveals the result could not be closer and may come down to a few hundred votes in one or two seats.
Galaxy principal David Briggs said the average swing across the five states to the Coalition was 1.7 per cent but there were big variations and individual candidates and local issues could easily decide particular seats.
