-This is my quick analysis of the latest report as i needed to know how it might affect the demand of fertilizer-
(Global wheat production for 2008/09 is projected at a record
656 million tons, up 8 percent from 2007/08, and up 5
percent from the previous record in 2004/05. Higher
production is projected for most of the world's major
exporting countries including Australia, Canada, EU-27,
Russia, and Ukraine.)
-Wheat actually looks fairly bullish for fertilizer companies due to the increase in production.
(Global coarse grains production for 2008/09 is projected at
1.1 billion tons, up slightly from the current year record,
despite the year-to-year decline in U.S. corn output.
At the projected 99.0 million
tons, 2008/09 global corn ending stocks are expected to hit
a 25-year low.)
- Course grain also look bullis for fertilizer demand with an increase in production and tight supplies.
(U.S ONLY) Total corn use expected to exceed production by
635 million bushels, ending stocks are projected down 45
percent. At 763 million bushels, ending stocks would be the
lowest since 1995/96.
-This is a little concerning for the U.S as corn stocks will be at their lowest since 1995/96.
(RICE: U.S. rice production in 2008/09 is projected at 197.0
million cwt, nearly the same as 2007/08. Beginning stocks in 2008/09 are estimated at 21.6 million
cwt, down 45 percent from 2007/08.)
- Rise also looks good for fertilizer demand as surely they will have to ramp up production dramatically to cater for the 45% drop in stocks)
(Global 2008/09 rice production is projected at a record 432
million tons, up 5 million from 2007/08)
- Still loks healthy for fertilizer demand.
(India's 2008/09 exports are projected
at 2.0 million tons, down 0.5 million from revised 2007/08,
and down 4.0 million tons from revised 2006/07. It is
assumed that India will maintain export restrictions on non-
basmati rice through most of the 2008/09 marketing year.)
- Restrictions by India should keep the market tight.
(OILSEEDS: U.S. oilseed production for 2008/09 is
projected at 93.0 million tons, up 16 percent from 2007/08.
Higher soybean production accounts for most of the
increase.)
- Oilseeds look healthy for fertilizer demand with increased production.
(Soybean crush is projected to increase less than 1 percent
to 1.85 billion bushels, reflecting a small increase in
domestic soybean meal use and a projected decline in
soybean meal exports.Ending stocks for 2008/09 are projected at 185
million bushels, up 40 million from 2007/08, leaving the
stocks-to-use ratio at a relatively low 6 percent.)
- Still looks healthy for fertilizer demand.
(SUGAR: Projected U.S. sugar supply for fiscal year
2008/09 of 12.1 million short tons, raw value, is down
321,000 tons from 2007/08, mainly due to lower production
and beginning stocks.)
- Sugar production is down slightly however that shortfall should be more than made up through higher production with other crops.
(COTTON: The 2008/09 U.S. cotton projections include
sharply lower production and ending stocks compared with
2007/08.World ending stocks are projected
to fall nearly 10 percent to about 55.5 million bales.)
-Cotton will need to ramp up production
All in all looks very bullish for forecasted demand for fertilizer demand.
Now all that we need is to bring supply to this tight market.
Champ
