With the right financial engineering i would be sure the other 2 parties would walk away with the assets they want out of the Lattice deal eg The NZ asset and the other wants the VIC assets.
Senex would be left with the Cooper Basin assets.
With POO currently trending lower the Lattice valuations may not stack up and the bids may end up being lower than Origin expect, and they might just go to IPO in a few months.
Regardless you'd expect bidder to be low balling, as why pay too much in this environment. Then and only then, assuming a bargain price would it be of benefit to Senex grabbing those CB assets. Beach on the other hand need to raise $400m in equity to complete their bids, and the market is pricing that cap raising in.
Same could be said for the SXY SP currently also.
Either way, it would be good to get this issue out of the way and know clarity moving forward.
The horizontal collapse was a real bummer, and will set them back months, which if you are looking at it from Origins eyes, its just another reason to be getting out of the exploration game, and if Senex was the Lattice bidder another deal would be tied into that which lets Origin out of the $115m un con drilling program, leaving Senex to just focus on WSGP which is the best change of revenue in the short term.
The other negative for Seenx is their Hedging expires 30/6 right at a time when POO is trending towards 12 months lows and or $40 pb .
So in summary Senex could easily be shorted if and once the Lattice deal comes out an Seenx is not the successful bidder.....
SXY Price at posting:
26.8¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
