I'm not sure. I've been here since pre-IPO, some friends of mine run Planet Innovation, the business Lumos span out of.
Been here on the ASX for more than 2 years now. We had so long where it was about 4 of us here on HC arguing about progress and value while about 2 trades went through a day. Some times Perennial would trade in and out, and I'd say "they're professionals, they know what they're doing!" But often they'd buy high and sell low. Then that family took a big position in the low single digits this year.
Finally, then, the FDA approval and Boom!
The entire shares on issue turned over in a couple of days - I don't think the T20 will have changed that much so to me it means there are heaps of people punting downstairs. Heaps of the people who got excited in the first 48 hours after FDA will have paid over 10 cents, then got caught underwater ... I think that means there are heaps of loose hands.
My original valuation on this is in the many 100s of millions but I've tempered that given the lower take up rates and delayed approval down to just 100s of millions.
Now with 400 million SoO and fully diluted we're at 500 million shares ... the news flow supports us moving above $100M market cap pretty soon; if everything goes well we can get back above listing mkt cap and then listing price. In the short term lots of people here, lots of liquidity ... potential fish in a barrel feeding frenzy.
I sold 20% of my initial holding back in 2021 for $1.30; bought that back at 17 cents, tripled down at 5 cents; sold a parcel at 8.8 cents for a bike trip; bought them back in the SPP to sell again by the end of September to make the bike trip more enjoyable; holding the rest at least until the business is operating and profitable.
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