They already confirmed the first $5 mill has been received.I...

They already confirmed the first $5 mill has been received.

I have an idea to price the company a little with fundamentals. Firstly, I think tomorrows half yearly will have a poorer EBITDA result. If you see the yellow, in the pic below, you can see the two quarterlies that compiled the half yearly ending Jun 23 had good revenue and lower costs. If you look at the blue, which will glue together to make the tomorrow report, you see higher cash usage and lower revenue - by a LOT! Revenue down by 2.7 mill and cash usage up by 1.2 mill. So the EBITDA must suffer. I will guess between MINUS 3 and 4 mill. That I expect.

Now to price this beast we will need to see the 31Mar24 quarterly (at end of April). This will be the first period of time there are ongoing sales for the entire quarter. And the half yearly ending 30Jun24 will give the biggest picture as there we will see the EBITDA based on a half year of sales. (I exclude in my thinking the one off $10 mill IP sale).

What we will be able to find out is

1) are margins staying at 60% or do they fall back to 50%
2) does the 'cash usage' stay the same (I am assuming this is cash used not in manufacturing)
3) you can roughly get the EBITDA, simply by doing operating expenses MINUS gross profit... so aside from the cash burn, you can very simply say for every dollar of extra revenue, the EBITDA goes up by 50 cents; so to wipe out a minus $3 mill of EBITDA, you need to pick up an extra $6 mill in revenue over a half year

Based on my 3) I can guess the 2.7 mill lesser revenue for this half year (compared to prior) will yield an increase MINUS to the EBITDA of 1.3 mil... so our EBITDA goes from, last reported, minus 1.8 mill to minus 3.1 mill (but that silly low cash usage in 30jun23 q of 1.2 mill may mean we are worse than 3.1 mill minus for EBITDA in tomorrows report.

Anyway.... I am thinking we need q revenue, going forward, of $4 mill to make us EBITDA positive. Aside from the 10 mill sugar hit (in this q and next, $5 mil each) I do think the q revenue, ongoing, can indeed be $4 mill (services and product).

Anyway x 2... tomorrow may be worse than I thought as Lumos ramped up without increase in sales last half year; but my gut (and these numbers) say from 1 Jan (now, that is) we become EBITDA positive PLUS and extra $10 mill sugar hit into the bank.

Lord knows if a company can be in profit (from that $10 mill) AND have a negative EBITDA. I think that is where we are at!

We will see!