Took a few chomps last week with the thought of stashing away in top drawer, but will have to take a few more bites if it gets close to 8.5c. Timing is good for me, so am embracing any retrace as an accumulation opportunity.
Agreed that there's definitely upside expected in near term. A few things I'm keeping an eye out for:
- ViraDx: Has been sitting with FDA for EUA pathway for a while now, and while I'm not particularly sold on the need for this 3 in 1 RAT, maybe all this hoo-ha Biden's drumming up on COVID-19 can trigger a definitive look at the application. Timing is TBC - submitted to FDA for EUA in Dec 21, so it's anyone's guess; could be imminent as they've continued to say we've been answering ongoing questions on application. Outcome, whether approved or not, wouldn't be a game changer for the business IMHO, and would just complement FebriDX as a bundle sale. Would be great to get in before winter comes around in North America though.
- FebriDx: Big one is of course the US distribution partner. Unless strategy has changed, they'd be targeting the US$500M+ specialty outpatient market ex reimbursements, before planning for broader $2-3bn total addressable market. As Doug mentioned, a lot of discussions with potential partners going on in the background. Assuming orders locked in around Jan 24, you'd hope we can strike a deal within the next month or two. If we're lucky, might even get an update shortly on sales activities from Portugal and Spain as we're nearing 2 months since partnering with Henry Schein in those markets.
- Commercial Services: Most of the buzz is around FebriDx, but 97% of our growing topline is generated from commercial R&D and contract manufacturing services. I'd rather we focus our efforts on developing our own IP, but given the positioning of Hologic in the latest annuals, wouldn't be too left field if there was another contract primed in the background for some more $.
AIMHO. GLTAH.
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