ChatGPT is good for quick searching info. I do find this...

ChatGPT is good for quick searching info. I do find this interesting and whether accurate or not is subject to opinion:

To estimate the annual revenue potential for Lumos Diagnostics' Febridx and Viradx products in the U.S. point-of-care (POC) market, we need to consider several key variables:

1. Addressable POC Market: The total number of potential customers or tests that could be sold annually in the U.S. POC market.

2. Average Retail Price: The average price at which Lumos Diagnostics sells each Febridx and Viradx test.

3. CLIA Waiver: A CLIA (Clinical Laboratory Improvement Amendments) waiver allows tests to be used in a broader range of settings, including physician offices, retail clinics, and pharmacies, significantly expanding the addressable market. Without a CLIA waiver, the tests can only be performed in more specialized labs, limiting the market.

With CLIA Waiver:

• Market Size: The U.S. POC diagnostics market with CLIA-waived tests is much larger due to access to more facilities (e.g., physician offices, urgent care centers). The POC testing market was estimated to reach around $50 billion in the U.S. in recent years, with respiratory diagnostic tests (like Febridx and Viradx) being a significant segment, especially post-COVID-19.

• Assumed Market Penetration: Depending on the competition and marketing efforts, Lumos might capture anywhere from 0.1% to 2% of this market.

• Average Retail Price: Suppose Febridx and Viradx are priced at $25 per test.

Let’s assume Lumos Diagnostics can sell 5 million tests annually at 0.5% market penetration with CLIA waiver.

• Revenue:
  5 million tests×25 USD/test=125 million USD annually

Without CLIA Waiver:

• Market Size: The market without CLIA waiver would be limited to specialized diagnostic labs, possibly cutting the addressable market by over 50%. Suppose the potential market without the waiver is around 25% of the market size with the waiver.

Assuming Lumos sells 1.25 million tests annually without a CLIA waiver:

• Revenue:
  1.25 million tests×25 USD/test=31.25 million USD annually

Summary:

• With CLIA waiver: $125 million per year
• Without CLIA waiver: $31.25 million per year