LDX Discussion, page-674

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Quest09

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13/11/24

13:34

Post #: 76585290
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Originally posted by FindMyBroker: ↑

The issue is that cash burn currently of $2.6MillionUSD or $3.97MillionAUD a quarter and no guarantee anymore of reoccurring income. If CLIA waiver is the trigger for substantial uptake of product in the US and Viradx is competing in a saturated market, at best we are looking at what? $1Million for the half year of flu season (June to December).

Hologic funds are already received in house except for a circa $600,000 payment.

$1MillionUSD max for the BDI deal at this stage and that likely is included in the $1.5M per quarter currently being generated by services income.

So the figures as it stands in AUD and assume that we obtain $1MillionUSD for this quarter in revenue from products:

Cash on hand = $20.2MillionAUD + $1MillionUSD product revenue + $1.5MillionUSD new services revenue ($3.8MillionAUD) = $24,000,000 (might not include the $600,000 Hologic payment) if so, then that is $24,900,000.

Less quarterly burn (assuming is remains as is) $20,930,000.

But then, what revenue is expected in the 3rd and 4th quarterly from the current deals? $300,000USD ($459,000AUD) in product sales and another $2.29MillionAUD new services revenue?

That would then guesstimate the books at $20,930,000 + $459,000AUD product revenue + $2.295MillionAUD new services revenue = 23,684,000

Less the $3.97MillionAUD burn = $19,714,000.

BUT you also need to account for the fact your $20Million includes the BARDA payment which is already allocated to the study.

So technically, cash on hand is actually $15.114MillionAUD which is just under 4 quarters of cash on hand without any substantial increase to product sales or new deals on board providing massive lump sum payments or reoccurring revenue.

So end of the day, they are reliant on Febridx sales increasing dramatically to ensure both revenues and cash on hand increases, or they need to reduce the burn.

Until another announcement with a new services deal or ongoing revenues from existing partners is guaranteed.

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Link to previous post: https://hotcopper.com.au/posts/76558328/single

....and what if the PLA reimbursement comes in as expected any day now (as per above linked post).?

A reimbursement on the cost to purchase and use FebriDx could boost sales of FebriDx very quickly.

Also, the CLIA waiver grant includes another approx US $5 million dollars which i believe LDX will work to pick up within the next 12 months.

Also, LDX have been far from static in their achievements and announcements to the market about new opportunities and/or ventures, so it would be reasonable to assume that LDX are currently working on generating new business opportunities and/or expanding on current opportunities.

IMO, there are a lot of positive aspects to LDX's current position. IMO, the fundamental business case is sound, and is being executed as we speak.

Originally posted by Quest09: ↑

From the recent quarterly report: "Cash balance of US $5.7 million as at 30 September 2024, prior to receipt of Retail Offer Proceeds of A$6.9 million."

Note - US $5.7 million = approx. AUD $8.7 million.

AUD $8.7 million cash on hand + AUD $6.9 million proceeds from retail offer = AUD $15.6 million dollars.

According to the quarterly, as of 30 September 2024, LDX has approx $15.6 million AUD cash balance on hand.

That also does not include the US $3.0 million grant that has been awarded for the CLIA waiver study (approx AUD $4.6 million).

If we include the grant, then cash available would be approx: AUD $20.2 million cash.
LDX current market cap is appprox: AUD $25 million

Very basic calculation, but IMO, it gives a very clear indication that LDX is currently significantly undervalued.

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LDX Price at posting: 3.3¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
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