Thermal Coal (positive) Thermal coal markets appear to be recovering after selling off from US$195/t to US$155/t (Newcastle fob price) over the past two months; now trading at about US$162/t. We expect catalysts to remain broadly supportive over the next several quarters. �� Vietnamese exports are likely to fall following damage to port facilities in July; removing about 5mt from the market this year. �� Chinese exports are likely to fall significantly as the government seeks to prioritise domestic supply for power production following steep declines in utility inventory levels and the prospect of increased winter demand. The Chinese government recently applied a 10% export duty for thermal coal and we expect an export quota to be introduced over the next month or so which should further constrain the ability of Chinese coal producers to sell into the seaborne market. �� Indian imports are likely to grow significantly given increased power production problems, partially a function of poor thermal coal availability.
RIV Price at posting:
0.0¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
