Leading indicators of an economic contraction, page-11

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    I should explain myself better. I don't mean to say that one should throw caution to the wind. There are good reasons to be nervous, especially about the domestic economy. My feelings are that one should try to have a robust portfolio. To me that means a portfolio that is no overly exposed to one segment (eg discretionary retail) or to one stock, especially if that stock is trading at very high multiples.

    However, my sense is that making a high conviction bet on when markets will be offering you everything for nothing (timing), is probably a mistake.
 
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