Leading indicators of an economic contraction, page-239

"Is it also reasonable to mention that this statement has been proven to be a fallacy at specific times when the US short term credit cycle peaked dozens of times throughout history?"

But how is it possible to be able to foretell, on a sustainably reliable basis, when those peaks will occur?


So I may also rephrase the statement to - I sense the notion of holding 100% equities at certain points of time throughout history lulls investors into a false sense of security

Again, the recurring presumption you present is that it is possible to accurately predict when those "certain points in time" will occur. Having spent the bulk of my adult life reading, studying and following capital markets, I have not come across any evidence of anyone who is able to do so on any sustainable basis.

Conversely, if the equities one owns are the right ones, then the sense of security is - instead of being a false one - actually a demonstrably very real one given the out-performance of those sorts of stocks over time... that outcome without having to bother oneself with the futile (and wealth-limiting, from a potential opportunity cost standpoint) exercise of trying to predict when to get out, and when to get back in again.

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