Leading indicators of an economic contraction, page-643

No, no change to outlook.

As you know it took me a good 4 months or so to narrow things down to 5 key indicators (traffic lights):

1. US yield curve inversion for 4-6 months then rising - Red
2. Global yield curve inversion then rising again - Red
3. US unemployment rate forms a trough then rising - Green
4. US LEI high but declining over several months - Green
5. Euphoria evident in US market - Amber

And as you know, I personally think all 5 traffic lights have to turn red. At that point, I think the probability of the US rotating into a contraction is elevated. Too elevated for me anyway. That has been the lesson from history at least. When all 5 traffic lights have turned red in the past, the US cycle rolls into a contraction shortly after and the US equity market rolls into a bear market. And other world markets generally roll with it.

All 5 traffic lights have been green since 2009. Only recently 1 and 2 have turned red, but they may well turn out to be false readings for the reasons discussed in this article.
https://lt3000.blogspot.com/2019/08/how-worried-should-we-be-about.html?m=1

So if so called professional investors such as Ray Dalio etc have not been fully invested when all 5 traffic lights have been constantly green for the past decade, are they worth listening to? Or are they just part of the great noise machine. The creators of the wall of worry if you like.

Anyway, it will be interesting to see what happens this time around when all 5 traffic lights turn red again.

Switch off the noise until then. That is my plan.