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Leading indicators of an economic contraction, page-744

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vic_wattle

3,479 Posts.

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17/01/20

16:43

Post #: 42439942
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Originally posted by ididwork ↑

"The latest price is 130% above trend"

"Since that first trough in 1877 to the March 2009 low:

Secular bull gains totaled 2075% for an average of 415%.

Secular bear losses totaled -329% for an average of -65%.

Secular bull years total 80 versus 52 for the bears, a 60:40 ratio.

This last bullet probably comes as a surprise to many people. The finance industry and media have conditioned us to view every dip as a buying opportunity. If we realize that bear markets have accounted for about 40% of the highlighted time frame, we can better understand the two massive selloffs of the 21st century."

https://www.advisorperspectives.com...-perspective-on-secular-bull-and-bear-markets

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My thoughts,

Stocks have clearly offered spectacular returns since the 1980s. Now, we are off the gold standard and there is low inflation, governments can implement as much QE as they like to inflate asset prices and bring down unemployment.

However, there are some things that have never changed since 1871. That is people's human nature to gamble, dream, and get wrapped up in the latest fad. And, if there is no rational, they will make one up to justify their choices.

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Building beautifully. We just need to look out for simple clues now. My 5th traffic light is orange. Its John Templetons final traffic light.
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