@MarsC @madamswer
Though you guys may find this article interesting.
https://research.stlouisfed.org/pub...-the-yield-curve-vs-unemployment-rate-troughs
The article was from June 2018. The yield spread (us10yr - us3mth) then was about 1%. It continued to reduce and became negative briefly at the end of march.
The US unemployment rate bouncing around 3.8% is starting to signal that the business cycle peak may be approaching in the US. At least, that is what history suggests if a trough starts forming.
https://www.macrotrends.net/1316/us-national-unemployment-rate
It is also interesting to note that it has been a record 137 months since the last
business cycle peak of December 2007. The previous record was 128 months for the 90-01 peak. The average for the 11 cycles since 1945 is 68.5 months peak to peak.
https://m.nber.org/cycles/cyclesmain.html
I think Australia is entering a weakened state where it is at a greater risk of recession from external shocks such as a contraction in the US business cycle. I decided today to start the process of reducing my exposure to equities to start to build a safety buffer and war chest.
