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Leading indicators of an economic contraction, page-14

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MarsC

4,228 Posts.

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25/04/19

17:35

Post #: 38266164
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Originally posted by vic_wattle: ↑

Everyone else is already nervous? Maybe 6 months ago, but since then the SPX, Nasdaq and ASX (recent) have pushed to new highs and the headlines read "fears of a recession in the US have eased" and people are buying it.

FOMO driven by good old fashioned greed (and delusional euphoria fuelled by all the noise from an investment industry machine and politicians whos vested interest is to let the market run for as long and hard as possible) may not run as long and hard as it did before the dec 2007 peak. Why? Because the memory is fresh and I would expect some money to quietly exit the market sooner than it did in 2007. Maybe that will be a good thing, reducing the severity and duration of a us recession?

The moment to consider an etf such as BBUS will be in the lead up to the 2020 US elections. If trump can convince the population that he has indeed "made america great again", they all have jobs, wages are going up, assets are booming and they collectively fall for it and give trump a 2nd term. Thats when I will be piling into BBUS and the like.

Can the world be that stupid again as it was in 2007?

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I believe that market euphoria is a condition where people believe "this time is different". It has always been so. If the market is being held back by memories of the past, as you say, then I suggest that euphoria has not arrived.
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