Leading indicators of an economic contraction, page-551

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    US data looks ok. LEI increased to new high of 112.2

    Since starting this thread back in May or so, I have learnt a lot and got many things wrong. One of the key learnings for me is found on the 2nd last page of the attachment below. The LEI has always peaked and declined (mostly rapidly) prior to the 7 US contractions since 1970.

    US LEI - Tech Notes AUGUST 2019 (2).pdf
 
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