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Leading indicators of an economic contraction, page-584

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vic_wattle

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19/10/19

05:12

Post #: 40964471
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Originally posted by vic_wattle ↑

Update on these traffic lights @pongosniffa

- the US yield curve needs to remain negative for 4-6 months (currently about 3.5 months. AMBER)
- the gdp weighted yield curve needs to turn negative (has been for about a month now. AMBER)
- US LEI index needs to be high but declining (not yet. GREEN)
- signs of euphoria must be present (?. GREEN)
- US unemployment rate low, trough formed and starting to rise. (not yet. GREEN)

2 amber 3 green. No traffic jam yet, still flowing ok. Sleep easy.

My general plan is this. When we see 5 red, then i will watch this video again and start thinking about the next set of traffic lights to guide me.

Quiet money will distribute during that 1st 3rd, then the horses will bolt in the 3rd.

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Update on these traffic lights:

- the US yield curve needs to remain negative for 4-6 months (it did so for approx 4.5 months. Has returned to positive in last week or so. AMBER*)
- the gdp weighted global yield curve needs to turn negative (it did so for a few months and is starting to rise again as central banks lower their rates. AMBER*)
- US LEI index needs to be high but declining over several months (GREEN)
- signs of euphoria must be present (GREEN)
- US unemployment rate low, trough formed and starting to rise. (GREEN)

2 amber 3 green. No traffic jam yet, still flowing ok. Sleep easy

* if these two continue to rise for several months they will switch to red.
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