Hi there xmagx,
That's a superb post... your scenario will happen - 1 to 3 years hence TIOF and Chinguetti will practically overnight be gushers thanks to "advanced processing of 4D seismic, new drilling techniques like finding the right spot to drill and not drilling on the extreme flanks of reservoirs, blah blah blah" hence the interest being stirred amongst suitors (behind closed doors of course) and the high initial offer from TLW.
I too tend to think that the really big end of town will let TLW do the bulk of 'the dirty work' so to speak and then swoop on TLW - especially given the synergies generated by a blending of HDR-TLW assets already identified in the scheme documents.
ML may be going for the old one-two given that it's also got a stake in TLW...
Interesting too how they're in ROC, obviously they gain value in the uncertainty generated by a placement. Volatility = $'s. They may be setting themselves up for the next cabs off the rank in terms of cap, short then S of A? I'd be a tad nervous now if I was a ROC shareholder... it's already playing out and not simply a function of the (for now) falling oil price.
The real wild card will be the Chinese state run oil companies (and possibly an Indian co) that may judge it politically expedient to do the deed now (while it's an ASX listed entity and deal with our FIRB) given that once the assets are in UK/EU hands it's pretty much tied up vis-a-vis the extreme shrewdness of the market participants and institutions over there. Remember the Macquarie bid for the ASX? Even they got bashed... The Brits know the future potential of Africa well... they have a longer history there. SO any move by an Asian player may need to happen now.
Chevron will be fresh in Chinese minds and with all those foreign currency reserves burning a hole in their collective pockets why not go shopping for bargains in Africa? A 'policy loan' financed bid could blow the TLW offer out of the water.
Just my thoughts and certainly not gospel... cheers, M.
HDR
hardman resources limited
