He said that on the balance of probabilities she was raped. That's based on Higgins allegation and Lehrmann's multiple improbable accounts for his motivation in returning to Parliament House with her. Variously to drink whiskey, collect his keys and work on policy formulation after drinking for 7 hours. Having disbelieved Lehrmann's version of events, the judge turned his mind to why he would lie about his activities: the most probable explanation in the mind of the judge being that he did what Higgins accused him of doing.
