Not to be picky, but chance of US default is NIL. Chance of ratings downgrade high.
Default is not being able to repay the debt (think Greece). US can easily repay the principal and interest on the treasury notes maturing (circa $29B in Aug I think) from tax receipts (circa $140B in Aug I think).
Debt ceiling is like raising the credit limit on your Mastercard, so you can buy even more stuff you can't afford and pay for it later on.
IMO.
SSN Price at posting:
14.0¢ Sentiment: Hold Disclosure: Held