len jubber letter, page-20

phil,

my argument going back a few months was in two parts,

one, that it is only the forward 2011 sulfur prices that are relevant, and second, that BMN was significantly undervalued next to peers, and that at 26c, heck, even now, represented great re-inflation capacity.

Leaving that behind, and us all looking forward.

My thoughts are to what comodities the world needs, and can simply not turn down even in a global recession.

1) Uranium, the cheapest component of a nuclea reactor. After spending the hundreds of millions on the reactor, the U feed stock is a minority of total costs, and my understading, is that a reactor can not be left empty, ie, it needs base level of uranium to remain viable.

2) Fertiliser, RP. Difficult to see just because the price of bread has been sold off cheaply, if the flour will be forced to follow suite, esp as it is controlled by large price setting cartels.

3) Another area i have diversified to is the operational, and expanding coal seam gas plays in the USA. Those with actual sales or immenent. And forcast growths into 2009-2010 a couple hundred percent. MAE, RFE, STX, i'll say no more on those and leave them to their threads. Like all, have been sold down, but the difference is they have expanding earnings growth, and very little speculative left in them.

Another couple of sectors, that are more vulnerable to the global slow down, but attractive nonethe less.

4) of the metals, I would only look at nicol as potentially having a floor, as it is at long term average, and onto low cost producers, who are profitable at current prices. These are only the high grade projects. IGO and PRW.

5) tech stocks. ARR.

Just trying to be positive.

cheers


PS, i noticed that DYL is currently sold down, and has shown good resilience in the past few sell downs. I dont hold, but think it offers an opportunity on mondays rally.