less sellers below 0.30, page-39

Phil,

That is the trouble with too many/too big a position imo. Too likely to reduce in a time of fear. Best defence against fear is perhaps good research, strong conviction and manageable position.

CVN is my biggest oiler position by a long way, but small compared to two nickel positions JBM and IGO, where I really backed the truck up during the american calamity, and went back for seconds. I now have 2/3 the truck load of CVN I once had, unlikely to buy more now. If CVN goes like a dream it may nevertheless overtake both my nickel positions, in which case with hindsight I will say I bought enough. If not then with hindsight I may say nevermind, there were better opportunities elsewhere.

I like stories that are ongoing, rather than the one hit gambles. The way I see CVN is at least two drilling rigs for many many years. I would expect the JV to consider increasing rigs if any of the other fields come in, by which time cash should be building. I strongly prefer to buy stocks that I do not NEED to sell, where the story keeps running. I hope CVN is such, my research indicates the odds of this are good.

EL