Posted this in another thread but thought let’s start a thread exclusively for valuations.
Mine:
Approx 6000 patients in the USA. Will assume 50% market penetration (which is high) due to how active the Retts community is and how long they’ve been looking for treatments.
3000 patients at $375,000 USD p/a = $1,125,000,000 revenue for Acadia.
Based on Neurens royalties structure:
The first $250,000 USD = 10% of sales = $25 million
USD$250,000-$500,000 USD = 12% of sales = $30 million USD
$500,000-$750,000 USD = 14% of sales = $35 million USD
>$750,000 USD = 15% of sales = $56.25M USD
Total royalties p/a = $146 million USD.
Ex rate 0.70 = $208M AUD
Tax rate 30%
After tax profit (I know there will be business running costs but they won’t be much) = $146M AUD
Shares on issue = 129M
Earnings per share = $1.13
Industry average PE ratio = 26 but let’s use 20 to be conservative
Valuation = $22.67 just based off neurens royalties from Acadia in the USA, Not factoring in anything from rest of the world
NEU Price at posting:
$9.09 Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
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