Posted this in another thread but thought let’s start a thread...

Posted this in another thread but thought let’s start a thread exclusively for valuations.

Mine:

Approx 6000 patients in the USA. Will assume 50% market penetration (which is high) due to how active the Retts community is and how long they’ve been looking for treatments.

3000 patients at $375,000 USD p/a = $1,125,000,000 revenue for Acadia.

Based on Neurens royalties structure:

The first $250,000 USD = 10% of sales = $25 million

USD$250,000-$500,000 USD = 12% of sales = $30 million USD

$500,000-$750,000 USD = 14% of sales = $35 million USD

>$750,000 USD = 15% of sales = $56.25M USD

Total royalties p/a = $146 million USD.

Ex rate 0.70 = $208M AUD

Tax rate 30%

After tax profit (I know there will be business running costs but they won’t be much) = $146M AUD

Shares on issue = 129M

Earnings per share = $1.13

Industry average PE ratio = 26 but let’s use 20 to be conservative

Valuation = $22.67 just based off neurens royalties from Acadia in the USA, Not factoring in anything from rest of the world