Following the NEU presentation just finished, I've updated the...

Following the NEU presentation just finished, I've updated the valuation table I'd posted on another thread earlier.

Jon confirmed that the USD375k for Trof is the average expected net sales amount per patient on which royalties will be based.

Otherwise, same assumptions as before:
- no milestone or initial sale revenue payments included as not recurring annual revenue
- ROW at 50% of US sales to be conservative and because I understand from other posters and Jon's comments in presentation, pricing in ROW is likely to be lower (or at least 'different') to US prices.
- The royalty calcs are based on the tiered sales in the NEU announcements.
- USD/AUD exchange rate is 0.68.

If 3,000 patients in US is achievable, share price could reach AUD 19-29 on a 20-30x EBITDA multiple. Once ROW kicks in, AUD 33-50 on same basis.

Assumptions are obviously just my (modestly) informed speculations.

This is for Rett only. No allowance for 2591, Fragile-X or other future indications.

Price (USD)	$375,000	$375,000	$375,000	$375,000	$375,000
# Patients	1000	2000	3000	4000	5000
Exp. Annual Sales (Net Price) - All Royalty Qualifying	$375,000,000	$750,000,000	$ 1,125,000,000	$1,500,000,000	$1,875,000,000
Royalties (Tiered)	$40,000,000	$90,000,000	$146,250,000	$202,500,000	$258,750,000
Opex NEU	-$10,000,000	-$10,000,000	-$10,000,000	-$10,000,000	-$10,000,000
EBITDA NEU (USD)	$30,000,000	$80,000,000	$136,250,000	$192,500,000	$248,750,000
EBITDA NEU (AUD)	$44,117,647	$117,647,059	$200,367,647	$283,088,235	$365,808,824
EPS after 30% tax and 126M Shares	$0.25	$0.65	$1.11	$1.57	$2.03
EBITDA to Share Price Multiple (20x) (AUD)	$4.90	$13.07	$22.26	$31.45	$40.65
Including ROW (0.5 x US) 20x EBITDA
In $AUD	$7.35	$19.61	$33.39	$47.18	$60.97
EBITDA to Share Price Multiple (30x) (AUD)	$7.35	$19.61	$33.39	$47.18	$60.97
Including ROW (0.5 x US) 30 x EBITDA
In $AUD	$11.03	$29.41	$50.09	$70.77	$91.45
Div.Payout ratio (50% of EBITDA) (AUD)	$0.12	$0.33	$0.56	$0.79	$1.02