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It should come with no surprise that the potential asymmetry behind BET comes from the size of a deregulated U.S. market. Whilst there are many hurdles in the way of deregulation that might pose substantial risk to shareholders, the estimated size of the target market leaves plenty of room for error. Morgan Stanley predicts 38 states will have legalised sports betting by 2023 and see Covid-19 as a potential tailwind, as States look for alternative ways to fund deficits. On a broader level, the U.S. sports betting market is expected to grow exponentially, with TAM growing from $249m in 2017 to an estimated $8.55bn in 2025. Whilst cultural differences and access to betting means the U.S. will struggle to reach Australia’s level of betting per capita, their total turnover on horse racing will likely triple our own by the end of the decade.
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