No need for apologies, thanks for replying. When I see the list of every possibly perceived negative laid out together like that, I don't really see anything particularly troubling as a LT holder. There's plenty of unmentioned upside to factor in now too.
Personally, I don't think anything striking will happen in the next two weeks - but I think this will be a profound growth story over a period of years taking it to a multi-billion dollar valuation. The tech, the management, the timing, and the connections are all in place now - and they are all top class.
1) We've been told that RaaS is not the priority for FLC as it was for EMC, primarily because they can attain greater amounts of recurring revenue more quickly through BOT deals. With San Quintin and PDVSA signed, others in discussions, and MOU's from the blue like the US$100m African potable water plant - this will build over time. Service and maintenance of plants is also recurring revenue, and is growing.
2) Why not say 2018 will be stronger due to revenue slipping? It's been explicitly stated.
3) True that initial timing of MABR demo installations, sales, and size of initial orders has slipped in 2017. That has certainly been disappointing, and I think it has contributed to the price decline. I can understand some concern over this, and we're all keen for more and more sales whilst generally accepting of the fact that establishing a new tech in a cautious new marketplace requires time.
I was initially a little surprised reading your post as it certainly leans to the negative and omits the multiple new sources of revenue, and other upside, post-merger with RWL. We've noticed other posters drop in with this same mindset that this is still just EMC, and that it's all about MABR and RaaS. I see you are no longer a holder - so perhaps you've taken your eye off the revenue FLC IS making, and growth expectations in already well-established markets? If so, that side of the business is highly material and must be factored into even a casual appraisal of the company's outlook.
They have given a timeframe for being profitable (2019), and of course revenue has to grow for them to achieve that, and they must manage costs too. I'm confident they know what they're doing. I happen to (kind of) agree on the roadshows, but I wouldn't have put it so unkindly. These guys are workaholics and are doing a fine job of integrating and running the business. The reason I think they could limit the roadshows is because I think they probably deserve a break, and that consistent q by q revenue growth will eventually see more institutional investors sit up and take notice.
From my perspective there's no way a $250m MC overvalues FLC. Anyone who is close to this company can see the staggering clear and present revenue potential across years to come, and the excellent progress made to date. $250m possibly even undervalues the RWL component alone, as a fast-growing player in the water space (20-30% revenue growth per year, and gaining market share of the fastest-growing segment of the world's water market). And then you also have to believe that EMC was worthless! Smart, patient capital (Lauder, the trillion dollar fund) values FLC at quite a bit higher than the current SP and that has been backed up with every piece of value analysis to date through to Canaccord this week. When you already have leading tech and fast-growing revenues in an array of multi-billion dollar markets, and are also the sole company with the future of wastewater technology in your arsenal - ready to go just as China is rolling out history's largest ever installation of new wastewater infrastructure - then it's safe to rule out that 'a lot' of the revenue upside is already factored into a $250m MC.
FLC Price at posting:
63.0¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
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