Daytrader, I fear u r right in some of ur fundamental analysis...

Daytrader, I fear u r right in some of ur fundamental analysis (& that is why shorters keep coming back when T/A sort of suggests they should be finished). Poor RSI today for AGO finishing lower was not in the T/A Handbook.

As for FMG, FMG r definitely in a worrying point of market: low grade, simply because RIO & BHP may have too much firepower when demand is weaker & barriers to entry so small i.e. for low grade ore.

High grade producers should be alright but may depend on the Barnett subsidy for IOP under $90 being paid out (can u trust a State Gov't?), customer list in terms of the contract spec & reducing costs of production. AGO seem to have done this, MGX not to same extent but slightly less leverage & more FCF. Obvious choice would be consolidation betwen them or a TO by someone i.e. AAL.

I also think POO is now passing an inflexion point of $50, has too much RSI multi-day & summer oil usage (Northern Hemisphere) will keep momentum for POO going upwards. That is not good if u r an iron producer.

Steel mills & flat product steel producers in China & all through SE Asia & Australasia will make a motza, iron ore producers will be forced into a prisoner's dilemma.