Quite an extraordinary rise given where the US$ price of Fe currently is (depressed). Richie 2013 has captured most of the stuff well. AGO had about $200m of cash at end of Sep 2014.I haven't really looked at the debt profile to see whether there is much US debt on board. Fuel certainly helps although they only get excise rebate on fuel used within mining areas. A$ lower does help and maybe we see that tracking down (probably not into "Banana Republic" area just yet. Will need to wait and see how the "Big Three" + Roy Hill later in the year will impact and what India manages to achieve (btw they are not interested in Fe Fines - they want Lump which is not in abundance).
Still potential for Fe price to fall back again - its simply too early to predict coming off a thin and illiquid time of the year.
As for Brinsden buying more stock as the price catalyst - that's nonsense. He only bought a handful of shares albeit now well in the money. He still has a wad of options miles out of the money at a $2.80 strike and expiring in June this year + some "Performance Rights" + some "Appreciation Rights" whatever that means. Would think they will also be miles out of the money.
AGO is profitable here and I think will continue to extract more costs if at all possible. Yes - rail would be good in a sense but not on a "take or pay" basis but that's probably all that would ever be offered (rail owners like to screw their clients).
See what unravels - interesting times ahead for sure as well as volatility
AGO Price at posting:
24.7¢ Sentiment: None Disclosure: Held
