HiIn my years of investing, I have learned that - more often...

Hi

In my years of investing, I have learned that - more often than not - if I think an opportunity is badly mispriced by the market, it is me that is wrong. . . . .and the market is right.

And therefore, let's look at why the market might not like BTA, other than bad management/promotion from PC:

1. There appears to be no big-pharma interest in licensing LANI. Now, I have heard this dismissed on the basis that big pharma does not much like the vagaries of stockpiling markets, but that there is nevertheless a massive market opportunity. While it seems that the first part of this statement is true, what about the second? How sure can we be that there is a big stockpiling market for LANI? And what will be the economics of the supply terms?

2. Uncertainty as to whether there are any strings to the BARDA contract. Will the US government expect to be supplied on special terms as a quid pro quo for providing a bucket of money for LANI? What do we know about this?

3. Why is LANI achieving such low recent sales in Japan? Is this purely a seasonal thing, or is there something more sinister going on?

4. How significant is it that LANI missed its primary endpoint for prophylaxis? Was this just a case or poor trial design?

Please note that I am not saying that BTA does not have a bright future. I also don't claim to have the answers to the four questions that I ask. I am just putting it out there for discussion.