haha yeah thought that's what you meant!I've gone through the 4C...

haha yeah thought that's what you meant!

I've gone through the 4C reports from 30/9/19 to now, the following is true;
- MCM are not breakeven unless API4 coal prices are above USD$80/t
- MCM production, staff and admin cost are consistently around $7M per quarter, or USD$81/ROMt (this is high, very high)
- MCM have USD$14M of debt on the books, debt can be convertible to shares as warrants - unsure when debt due from FY report
- MCM sales are linked the API4 export price (currently USD$150/t)
- Require A$46M to develop Phase 1 of Makhada project

Based on the above, with USD$135/t coal prices MCM are forecast to have USD$3.5M of EBIT per quarter, and at USD$150/t this increases to USD$5M EBIT.

MCM have not yet seen the increase in coal prices hit the profit line really yet, as revenue per tonne was only USD$71/t in the last quarterly. The September quarter which just finished will be the first quarter which shows steady profit.

2 or 3 solid quarters with coal prices above USD$100/t and MCM could be in a position to pay down the existing IDC debt arrangement, or alternatively have the FCF to begin developing Makhado by themselves... Very good time to be developing a coal asset. MCM need to focus on lowering $/t operating costs, WHC, TER, NHC etc. all average around the A$70/t or USD$52/t range, with MCM at USD$80/t they are in the highest quartile of production costs and will be a marginal producer if they cannot get this under control...

Having had the chance to review in a bit more detail it is a very speculative buy IMO. I won't be sticking it out through any coal price weakness and consider this a trade only as MCM is not quality (but has some potential)