let's get this conversation started..., page-2

Thanks Hm004 for the efforts.

My thoughts are it is safe to assume we are at break even point or above with exisiting contracts so all future contracts are profit minus tax.

We know there are major IVD companies undertaking freedom to operate analysis and this procedure will have greatly acclerated following the allowance of the US patent as the allowance justifys claims made.

What I think will unfold this year -

2-3 deals worth around $10m pa and 1 larger deal (the 1litre company ) worth $25m+

So I think very achievable will be contracts in place for around $30m pa

This is obviously at full production and sales across the companies as the ramp up takes place so my opinion is that the pe ratio will be much much higher on initial signings which provide net profit.

The point those that dont know the company need to understand is we have 80+ companies testing and the list continues to grow - So when another company signs you need to think to yourself does this signing increase the chances of more companies signing - My answer is YES

What also needs to be said is we all know these companies dont change manufacturing procedures quickly so when they do sign I would assume earnings into the future of 10years or more.

The tipping point will be a signing into the IVD market or POC market as this opens us to a $10 BILLION per annum market

Figures are roughly 70% Immunoassays / 30% Point of care

Market growing at 6-8%pa

The first signing even if they are a smaller IVD player like Diasorin would put more pressure on the larger players to follow or give up a competitive advantage to a small player - I dont think they will let this happen.

I think if we get a signing into the IVD market PE would be more like 20-30 PE as the chance of a larger IVD signing would increase substantially.

So -

1 Small IVD - $10m x PE 15 - 25

= $7m NPAT x PE15 / 800m shares = 13 cents

= $7m NPAT x PE25 / 800m shares = 22 cents

An then we sign another deal for lets say $10m - This is the point when the crowd really starts to build and my estimate is a PE of 20

2 small deals @ $10m each x PE of 20

= $14m NPAT x PE20 / 800m shares = 35 cents

Add to this the 1 litre Major IVD siging for lets say $25m pa so that is 3 deals for $45m pa

So minimum of what I expect is $45m pa gross earnings minus costs of say $5m = $40m

= $28m NPAT x PE 15 = 52 cents

All above are my thoughts but would really ike to hear others