I am looking for a strong report before the end of the month before completely agreeing - also it's a brave person who looks for share price increases in this mad market, regardless of the fundamentals.
In order to assuage my nervousness, I (again) did some number crunching on GBM and others on Goldnerds), according to my personal investment criteria.
The results make me feel a lot better about GBM, so I'll take the liberty of sharing them. Sorry it is long and detailed ... and please feel free to criticise. If I have made no blunders, then I'll think about providing this info to the company, in the hope they can do something with it to help their (unfairly) SAD s.p.:
Of around 300 ASX listed aussie "gold companies" (as defined by goldnerds), 65 are in production (or are projecting production in the next 12 months). (Rationale - production is everything (after cash).
of the 65, 32 operate predominantly in Oz. (Rationale - no need to take international risk). of the 32, 25 are currently in production. (Rationale - a lot can go wrong with promised production). of the 25, 13 have projected/stated a direct cost of production of below $A600 per ounce. (Rationale - low production cost = reasonable certainty of being cahs flow positive even if the POG suffers wide variations (or manipulation as may occur in order to prop up the USD).
So, by Goldnerds info, of their 300 listed oz gold companies, only 13 fit my personal criteria for detailed investment analysis - this being a "digest-able" number. They, and the key investment data are:
The third column is the value given by market at today's price on an ounce of their in ground gold.
The fourth column is the value on an ounce of their production.
Of these companies, I disinvested (last year) from:-
BDG (because I don't think they have a hope of ever being economical (built to too large a scale for the resource) CTO - (because of rumours as to the reality and access-ability of their resource - and fears they might be another BDG) and I never got into NCM as I prefer the upside of juniors.
This cuts it down to ten, a few of these I have discounted, and others which I need to study harder. But on these figures alone, and having studied GBM ..... GBM is in the top two on any of my key criteria ... APART from:
- cash risk - which they apparently have solved; and - management background - where, looking past the board, I am not too unhappy with the strength of the on the ground management, and in today's market, I am happy with a local geologist on the board and a merchant banker as a chairman/cornerstone shareholder (as ability to raise cash may still be key).
So .... when are they going to start telling people about it?
GBM Price at posting:
5.5¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
