lets have a rational discussion about us debt, page-64

KG, getting to your topic heading

is 11.4 the right figure to use, IMO no, the $4.5 trillion is all US revenue, federal, state and local.

The federal revenue is only $2.1 trillion, yet the federal government spends $3.5 trillion, leaving a budget deficit of $1.4 trillion.

so using these figures its now 2.1/.4 which equals 5.25

on top of this the US interest amount is unusual, you see in that link I posted before
http://www.treasurydirect.gov/govt/reports/ir/ir_expense.htm

the historical data shows that 2009 was unusual, that is because of the way the US now borrows (short) and unusually low interest rates, when and not if these rates revert to the mean the US interest bill will skyrocket, say we use 6%, that $12trillion plus debt, will equal an interest payment of over $700 billion, so we will try the equation using these figures

2.1/.7 which equally 3, so using (normallised) figures, one in every 3 dollars that the federal govermnent recieves in revenue, will have to meet interest payments

So this figure of 3 is IMO opinion closer to the real figure than the 11.4 was.

The federal deficit for the next four years is estimated to be another 5 trillion dollars, and before the GFC hit US debt was already at 8trillion, so maybe 1trillion or so of the $12tril debt was due to the GFC.

So the US already spends $1.4 tril more than they take, add this extra interest, how are they ever going to balance the budget, if you cut health, defence, social security or any other budget, the govt revenue will also fall, with the loss of jobs, and expenses (unemployment benefits) will rise.

The maths is ugly.


This works out that the US federal govt spends $5000 per each man, woman and child more than they recieve in revenue (each year). They have to borrow this amount, and pay interest on this amount every year forever, or until they run many surplus budgets.

And all of this is before we have to add in all the unfunded liabilities that may (or may not) ever be paid, this figure is over $100 trillion dollars.

Then add the state debts, and their unfunded liabilities

That is a clearer picture IMO

cheers grant

the above is opinion only and written without prejudice