I am trying to figure it out where are we now compare with 1929-1932 crash.
While the current stock price pattern is pretty much the same as the first Crash during Sept-Nov peroid of 1929, the question is where we could follow the 1929-1932, with tehre was a fall of 89% from 1929 high?
My understanding is the current event will condensed what happened nearly 3 years event into 6-12months drama.
One of very important sign is interest rate on treasurey bills went negative happend during the fall of 1932,(not n 1929, the initial painc). The ultimate low of DJI is 41.22 on June 8 1932. You know, now it happened just a few weeks ago.
The reason is active and massive government intervention, and globalization.
A few things goverment has done differently between then and now:
1. Raising tax then, and now give tax rebate;
2. Keep high interest rate, "for the fever of inflation long after the patient had begun to freeze to death in the greatest deflation in the country's history. Now they cut interest rate globally
3. Then maintaining strong anti-inflationary and contractionary policies. Now deal with such an emergency instantly by flooding the Street with money.
Can goverment intervention prevent such crisis?
I don't know. But at least we might have a shorter peroid of pain. How quick things can turn around, we might be able to use 1973-74 crash as a guide.
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