I agree with mumbly. And thank you for your voice of reason calling for calm thinking amidst the sea of panicked selling on Friday.
I'm as surprised as any other NMS investor that the ex-CFO failed to identify or to stress to the Board the seriousness of such a predictable liquidity risk. One would have thought that NMS had diligently relied on the three pillars of accounting reports (P&L, BS and CF Projection) to manage the finances. If so, then why didn't the CFP trigger the relevant risk signals to the attention of the CFO, CEO and Board? I suppose all sorts of speculation can be raised here, but they wouldn't be helpful. Even so, I see some major implications and opportunities:
- Time to return to the practice of quarterly reporting. The info blackout to investors and analysts is not doing the CEO, Board or NMS any good. In fact, it is highly likely that, without the blackout, the analysts would have asked all the pertinent questions, which could then have acted as a form of informal counter-check to the ex-CFO's work;
- Like regular NMS investors, CL is also at risk of losing his 1M options exercisable at 28c, and much value to his regular NMS shareholdings. How many shares does CL hold in NMS again? He'll have to fix the financing situation asap.
- A capital raising will be disastrous to the CEO's and the Board's image, considering that the last raising was at 50c, I recall. But that's what happens when good financial management is disregarded or under-rated. NMS really does need to learn from the humbling experiences of other companies such as AIO, BMN, NUF, OCV and TPI.
- There hasn't been much change in the volume of NMS' operations, but there have been some senior appointments. The audited financials indicate that NMS is still deriving approx. 30% gross margin from contracts. If the indirect expenses are approx. $60M p.a., then NMS will need approx. $200M in revenue to break even. Presumable, the value of the annual depreciation and amortisation is at least equivalent to the annual loan principal repayment. Otherwise there'll be ongoing cashflow problems for regular operations and for necessary capital investments as well.
- The matter of 2 or 3 PEs sniffing around NMS is intriquing. Combined with the attention of the pernicious short-sellers, do we loyal investors then prepare ourselves for a series of sustained attacks on NMS share price? Can NMS survive these attacks if it is urgently trying to raise $15M in financing?
- Should CL and the Board place NMS into a trading halt and then suspension while firming up the financing? It all depends on the chances of success. OCV pulled the trading halt and suspension stunt, and shareholders did not even have a chance to recoup a bit of their investments before OCV went into liquidation.
I am still positive about NMS' long-term potential and its ability to solve the vexed financing situation. But the matter of predatorial PEs and short sellers exploiting NMS' weakness to its detriment is of great concern to me because similar events have occured to other companies over the last 3 years.
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