Lets run some figures just on phosphateIm not too worried on how...

Lets run some figures just on phosphate

Im not too worried on how much they have as in how many million tonnes but as to just if they are to produce

$350/tonne time 1 mtpa = $350m/yr
(Lets assume they can mine 1 mtpa)

Opex $100/tonne = 100*1mtpa = $100m

$350 - $100 = $250m/yr
minues tax 250 - 30% = $175m

Shares on offer approx 60m

175/60 =$2.91 EPS

PE 1 = $2.91
PE 2 = $5.82
PE 3 = $8.73
PE 4 = $11.64
PE 5 = $14.55
PE 10 = $29.91


lets see what 2mtpa will do

$350/tonne time 2 mtpa = $700m/yr

Opex $100/tonne = 100*2mtpa = $200m

$700 - $100 = $600m/yr
minues tax 600 - 30% = $420m

Shares on offer approx 60m

420/60 =$7.00 EPS

PE 1 = $7.00
PE 2 = $14.00
PE 3 = $21.00
PE 4 = $28.00
PE 5 = $35.00
PE 10 = $70.00



Now lets take in some more capital rasing and estimate shares on offer at 120m

1mtpa EPS = 175/120 = $1.46 EPS

PE 1 = $1.46
PE 2 = $2.92
PE 3 = $4.38
PE 4 = $5.84
PE 5 = $7.30
PE 10 = $14.60


2mtpa EPS = 420/120 = $3.50 EPS

PE 1 = $3.50
PE 2 = $7.00
PE 3 = $10.50
PE 4 = $14.00
PE 5 = $17.50
PE 10 = $35.00


Now i may be off with the total amount of shares on offer but even at 1mtpa with 120m shares on offer and a PE of 1 will deliver 9 bagger from current SP of 16c.

the unknown is exactly how much CAPEX and OPEX will be, so fingers crossed CAPEX minimal. But all looks good from here, so having paid 23c myself im not too worried as long term its a winner as long as it can proved up a JORC.