Lets talk ROW

I want to kick off a discussion on the potential value of an ROW deal.

What did Acadia buy?

A P2 drug with a mathematical 60% chance of P3 success
For North America only
For Retts Syndrome only

How much did they pay.? Other posters please feel free to correct my back of the envelope numbers here but lets say

$150m for the P3 trial, plus
$100m in milestone payments, plus
one third of any Priority Voucher, plus
say 15% royalty on peak sales of $500m pa ie $75m pa until patent expires

What's for sale now?

A successful P3 drug with a 95% chance of FDA approval for sale
For the Rest of the World (maybe 20x the number of potential clients admittedly many without the capacity to pay US prices)
For Retts only ????? Maybe but other potential future applications like Fragile X could be included

How much would a big Global Pharma company pay for that?

Double what Acadia paid seems very cheap. Three times? For exclusive rights to a de-risked new drug in a much bigger market maybe for other indications? $US500m plus double digit royalties might be just the opening bid in an auction if there were multiple interested parties.

Makes an $AUD3.20 share price seem frankly ridiculous.